▸ Mortgage Rate Driver Desk

The 30-year fixed, decomposed into the two things that actually move it — the 10-year Treasury and the risk spread — and a simulator that estimates what happens to your rate when a driver moves. Only reverse-tested, correlated drivers are included.
AS OF 09 JUL 2026
baseline · offline
30Y Fixed
6.49%
Freddie Mac · wk 09 Jul
10Y Treasury
4.55%
the base rate
Spread
1.95%
vs ~1.75 long-run avg
MOVE Index
70.3
Treasury vol · low
Live model

Decomposition & Simulator

Your rate = 10-year Treasury + spread. Move any driver below and watch the bar recompose. Every driver's contribution is shown in basis points, using published sensitivities (sourced in the reference section).

Baseline · all drivers as currently priced6.50%
4.5510Y TREASURY
1.95SPREAD
Simulated · your scenario6.50%
4.5510Y TREASURY
1.95SPREAD
moves the 10Y
Inflation surprise — CPI/PCE vs consensus0 bp0.0 pp
−0.5 cooleras expected+0.5 hotter
Jobs surprise — nonfarm payrolls vs consensus0 bp0 k
−300k weakin line+300k hot
Fed path — extra 25bp cuts priced (12mo)0 bp0 cuts
−4 hikesunchanged+4 cuts
Treasury supply / deficit pressure0 bp0.00%
−0.30 easingneutral+0.30 heavy
moves the spread
Fed balance sheet — QE ↔ QT0 bpneutral
MBS buying (QE)neutralQT / runoff
Rate volatility — MOVE index0 bp70
50 calm70 now150 stress
Yield-curve slope — 10Y minus 2Y (bp)0 bp+100
−100 inverted+100 now+250 steep
seasonal · lender margin
Month of lock0 bp
Estimated 30Y fixed
6.50%
±0 bp vs baseline
$
Baseline payment (P&I)$2,528
Scenario payment (P&I)$2,528
Monthly difference$0
Over 30 years$0
What passes the test

The drivers, ranked by tested effect

Each of these has a measured, direction-consistent response in the historical record. Arrow shows which way your rate moves when the driver rises.

↑
Inflation surprise (CPI / PCE / PPI)
10Y
≈ +4 bp on the 10Y per +0.1 pp hotter-than-expected print
Heaviest hitter. Hotter inflation → market prices a higher-for-longer Fed → long yields rise. The Fed watches core PCE most.
Apr-2026 CPI 3.8% vs 3.7% exp → 10Y +4bp same session.
↑
Jobs surprise (nonfarm payrolls)
10Y
≈ +6 bp on the 10Y per +1 SD upside payroll surprise
Strong jobs → higher rates; weak jobs → lower rates. As a refinancer you are rooting for soft labor data.
Fed FEDS 2008-39 event study (6bp per 1σ on 10Y real yield).
↓
Fed policy expectations
10Y
Priced ahead of the meeting — watch the 2Y, not the headline
The Fed sets the overnight rate, not your mortgage. By the time a cut lands it's usually in the 10Y already. A cut can even coincide with rates rising if the tone reads hawkish.
Mortgage rates track the 10Y more closely than the funds rate.
↓↓
Fed balance sheet (QE / QT)
spread
Spread 0.71% under QE → 1.40% under QT — a ~70bp swing
The biggest lever on the spread. If the Fed restarts MBS buying, your rate can fall 50+ bp even if Treasuries don't budge. The single highest-impact event to watch.
Fannie Mae secondary-spread decomposition, 1995–2024.
↑
Rate volatility (MOVE index)
spread
≈ +1.4 bp of spread per point of MOVE above baseline
Lenders price the risk of rates whipsawing. Calm markets tighten the spread in your favor; turbulence widens it fast.
MOVE 70→77 in Jun-2026 ≈ spread 1.95→2.05.
↑
Yield-curve slope (10Y − 2Y)
spread
Flatter / inverted curve → wider spread (duration effect)
An inverted curve raises expected refinancing, shortens MBS duration, and prices mortgages off shorter, higher rates. Modest but real.
Richmond Fed mortgage-duration effect (corr ≈ −0.24).
↓
Seasonality (lender margin)
seasonal
≈ −20 bp in January vs the Jun–Oct window
Real but small, and it lives in the lender's margin — which you can also capture by shopping 3 lenders. A tiebreaker, not a strategy.
Haus study, 8.5M Freddie Mac originations 2012–2018.
✕
Ignore (fails the test)
noise
The Fed funds rate as a direct lever · "the Fed cut so rates drop" · single-analyst forecasts · home-price commentary · any sentiment take with no data release attached.
Model: first-order linear decomposition using published sensitivities. Baseline = 10Y 4.55% + spread 1.95% = 6.50%. Drivers are treated as independent and additive — fine for reading direction and rough magnitude, not a forecast of the 10Y's level, which nobody predicts reliably. Edit the BASE and COEF constants at the top of the script to re-baseline or wire in live data.
Not financial advice. This is an estimation tool for reading tested drivers, built for a personal refinance decision. Sources: Freddie Mac PMMS, FRED, Fannie Mae, Federal Reserve (FEDS), Richmond Fed, BIS, Haus/HousingWire.